UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts a 49% home price increase within six years

By: Allan Heller ~ October 27, 2010

Below is an excerpt from an OC Register article which states that the most recent U.C.L.A. Anderson Forecast predicts a 49% increase in home prices over the next six years.

UCLA: O.C. home prices to surge 49%

October 27th, 2010, 1:00 am · posted by Jeff Collins

Orange County will have a half-million-dollar housing market again by 2012, and home sales volume will rebound by a whopping 43% over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for the O.C. housing market.

Orange County Forecast
Year Price chg. Sales chg.
2010 $428,381 5.6% 32,139 3.5%
2011 $460,545 7.5% 40,974 27.5%
2012 $503,450 9.3% 45,877 12.0%
2013 $538,750 7.0% 48,832 6.4%
2014 $577,619 7.2% 49,913 2.2%
2015 $615,644 6.6% 47,800 -4.2%
2016 $639,650 3.9% 47,577 -0.5%

Economists with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast foresee O.C. home prices climbing above $500,000 in 2012 for the first time since April 2008. Prices are expected to appreciate from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015 — and, all told, grow 49% in the next six years.

By 2016, prices may be back to, or just under, the all-time highs reached at the pinnacle of the housing boom.

As for home sales, UCLA foresees transactions jumping 27.5 in 2011 and continuing to climb through 2014, almost reaching the boom-time levels.

“Expect a sluggish housing market for the remainder of this year and into next spring,” the forecast states. “At that time, pent up demand, rising affordability, and dissipating fear of a faltering economy should push sales higher.”

While UCLA forecasters don’t expect another recession, they believe that the recovery will be slow, calling the housing market recovery “fragile.”

In addition, there’s a wild card that could change the housing outlook for the worse, UCLA economists warned. If the shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages should abruptly get pushed through the foreclosure process, “this would impact selling values,” the forecast states. [read more …]

Individuals who have been waiting for the bottom of the housing market to purchase a home might consider now the perfect time to take advantage of the current low prices, low interest rates and abundant inventory.

What are your thoughts?

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