Below is a brief excerpt from his presentation.

You may read the Jeff Collins take on that conference by visiting the link at the bottom of this post.

But Thursday, Thornberg said, “I’m probably the most optimistic that I’ve been about the economy in the last eight years.”

Thornberg cited a host of indicators pointing to improvement. Durable goods orders, industrial production, imports, exports, rail car loadings and hotel occupancy rates all are up. Home and consumer delinquency rates are down.

Commercial real estate vacancies have peaked and are starting to come down, he said.

Personal income in California is up 6.5 percent. Business inventories declined just as consumer demand took off, which will spur production. Hiring, a lagging indicator, is starting to heat up, and “that’s going to continue,” he said.

The threat from the Euro debt crisis is overblown, he maintained. At worst, it will cause a mild recession in Europe, which won’t be enough to bring down the world economy.

From Ex-Doomsayer: ‘It’s a great time to buy a home’ – Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register.

Please let me know your thoughts.

UCLA: O.C. home prices to surge 49%

October 27th, 2010, 1:00 am · posted by Jeff Collins

Orange County will have a half-million-dollar housing market again by 2012, and home sales volume will rebound by a whopping 43% over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for the O.C. housing market.

Orange County Forecast

Year	Price	chg.	Sales	chg.
2010	$428,381	5.6%	32,139	3.5%
2011	$460,545	7.5%	40,974	27.5%
2012	$503,450	9.3%	45,877	12.0%
2013	$538,750	7.0%	48,832	6.4%
2014	$577,619	7.2%	49,913	2.2%
2015	$615,644	6.6%	47,800	-4.2%
2016	$639,650	3.9%	47,577	-0.5%

Economists with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast foresee O.C. home prices climbing above $500,000 in 2012 for the first time since April 2008. Prices are expected to appreciate from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015 — and, all told, grow 49% in the next six years.

By 2016, prices may be back to, or just under, the all-time highs reached at the pinnacle of the housing boom.

As for home sales, UCLA foresees transactions jumping 27.5 in 2011 and continuing to climb through 2014, almost reaching the boom-time levels.

“Expect a sluggish housing market for the remainder of this year and into next spring,” the forecast states. “At that time, pent up demand, rising affordability, and dissipating fear of a faltering economy should push sales higher.”

While UCLA forecasters don’t expect another recession, they believe that the recovery will be slow, calling the housing market recovery “fragile.”

In addition, there’s a wild card that could change the housing outlook for the worse, UCLA economists warned. If the shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages should abruptly get pushed through the foreclosure process, “this would impact selling values,” the forecast states. [read more ...]

Individuals who have been waiting for the bottom of the housing market to purchase a home might consider now the perfect time to take advantage of the current low prices, low interest rates and abundant inventory.

What are your thoughts?

This financial crisis has made us all too aware that we live in a Catch-22 world: the performance of the housing market drives the economy, and the performance of the economy drives the housing market. But housing has perhaps never been a better bargain, and sooner or later buyers will regain faith, inventories will shrink to reasonable levels, prices will rise and we’ll even start building again. The American dream is not dead — it’s just taking a well-deserved rest.

via Op-Ed Contributor – A Dream House After All – NYTimes.com.

What are your thoughts?

Newport among state’s top home gains

July 30th, 2010, 12:01 am ·  posted by Jon Lansner

Newport Beach cracked the Top 10 list of California cities with the largest year-over-year home prices gains, based on changes in the median selling price as tracked by the California Association of Realtors. June’s list …

1. National City, up 59 percent
2. Newport Beach, 52 percent
3. Richmond, 52 percent
4. San Bernardino, 47 percent
5. San Pablo, 38 percent
6. Fairfield, 37 percent
7. Walnut, 34 percent
8. Colton, 32 percent
9. Imperial Beach, 31 percent
10. Poway, 30 percent

CAR notes: “Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity.”

Statewide, CAR said the median selling price of an existing home rose 13.6 percent vs. June 2009. In Orange County, CAR had prices rising at a 6 percent annual rate.

Less of a surprise was that Newport was among the state’s priciest addresses. The Top 10 by median selling price in the state in June …

1. Manhattan Beach, $1,737,500
2. Los Altos, $1,618,500
3. Saratoga, $1,425,000
4. Palo Alto, $1,308,500
5. Laguna Beach, $1,230,500
6. Newport Beach, $1,150,000
7. Los Gatos, $1,045,000
8. Rancho Palos Verdes, $1,000,000
9. Cupertino, $980,000
10. Lafayette, $946,250

One last bit of June trend trivia from CAR, an analysis by DataQuick that found, “232 of the 372 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”

What are your thoughts?

Home sales up in 59 O.C. ZIPs

June 25th, 2010, 9:01 am . posted by Jeff Collins

For the 22 business days ending June 7 – DataQuick’s freshest stats — Orange County home buying patterns showed:

• Fifty-four of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes had gains in their respective median selling price. (Highlighted in green below!) Overall, prices were up 7.1% vs. a year ago.
• Five of O.C.’s ZIPs had median sales prices above $1 million in the period vs. 11 million-dollar ZIPs when the county median price peaked in June 2007. Since that pricing pinnacle, there’s been a 30% drop in the countywide median price!
• Fifty-nine of O.C.’s ZIPs had year-over-year sales gains in the period. Overall, sales were up 11.5% vs. a year ago.
• Thirty-seven ZIP codes had gains in both sales and prices.
• Three of O.C.’s ZIPs has sales gains of 100% or more in the period.

Here’s a look at the 83 ZIPs and how they fared in terms of median selling price and total sales for this period:

Town	ZIP	Price	Yr. chg.	Sales	Yr. chg.
Aliso Viejo	92656	$419,000	-0.2%	121	+49.4%
Anaheim	92801	$345,000	+23.2%	40	-4.8%
Anaheim	92802	$329,500	+7.2%	28	+21.7%
Anaheim	92804	$340,000	+11.5%	63	-4.5%
Anaheim	92805	$316,000	+3.6%	51	-36.3%
Anaheim	92806	$385,000	+4.9%	18	+38.5%
Anaheim	92807	$467,500	-2.1%	35	+0.0%
Anaheim	92808	$430,000	-1.1%	35	+40.0%
Brea	92821	$387,500	-11.1%	21	+0.0%
Brea	92823	$755,000	+31.6%	1	-80.0%
Buena Park	90620	$400,000	+2.6%	57	+3.6%
Buena Park	90621	$361,500	+25.5%	22	+37.5%
Corona del Mar	92625	$1,737,500	+54.4%	22	+57.1%
Costa Mesa	92626	$519,500	+3.9%	32	-5.9%
Costa Mesa	92627	$430,000	-14.4%	48	+20.0%
Cypress	90630	$449,000	-4.0%	45	+36.4%
Dana Point	92624	$552,500	+0.5%	16	+45.5%
Dana Point	92629	$563,000	-24.4%	49	+25.6%
Foothill Ranch	92610	$245,000	-45.6%	17	-5.6%
Fountain Valley	92708	$608,500	+14.8%	47	+38.2%
Fullerton	92831	$436,000	+7.7%	21	-34.4%
Fullerton	92832	$303,000	+1.0%	14	+7.7%
Fullerton	92833	$370,000	+2.8%	78	+50.0%
Fullerton	92835	$440,000	-19.3%	24	+20.0%
Garden Grove	92840	$340,000	+7.9%	53	+1.9%
Garden Grove	92841	$355,000	-6.6%	29	-19.4%
Garden Grove	92843	$320,000	+6.7%	34	-12.8%
Garden Grove	92844	$315,000	+22.3%	30	+42.9%
Garden Grove	92845	$480,000	-0.8%	12	+71.4%
Huntington Beach	92646	$539,500	+7.9%	62	+3.3%
Huntington Beach	92647	$529,250	+10.3%	36	-10.0%
Huntington Beach	92648	$775,000	-2.5%	52	+4.0%
Huntington Beach	92649	$510,000	-2.5%	32	+10.3%
Irvine	92602	$610,000	+6.9%	35	+16.7%
Irvine	92603	$977,500	+28.6%	36	+12.5%
Irvine	92604	$545,000	+10.2%	24	+4.3%
Irvine	92606	$412,000	-26.1%	23	+15.0%
Irvine	92612	$475,000	-8.7%	43	+79.2%
Irvine	92614	$557,500	+2.9%	23	-14.8%
Irvine	92618	$630,000	+44.5%	76	+261.9%
Irvine	92620	$740,000	+8.8%	54	0.0%
Ladera Ranch	92694	$557,000	+8.3%	64	+25.5%
La Habra	90631	$360,000	+26.3%	66	+53.5%
La Palma	90623	$541,000	+3.0%	16	+60.0%
Laguna Beach	92651	$900,000	-22.3%	40	+11.1%
Laguna Hills	92653	$455,500	+23.5%	31	-18.4%
Laguna Niguel	92677	$483,750	-7.9%	105	+22.1%
Laguna Woods	92637	$170,000	-27.7%	27	+42.1%
Lake Forest	92630	$439,000	+20.3%	74	+39.6%
Los Alamitos	90720	$664,500	+2.5%	18	+20.0%
Midway City	92655	$351,500	n/a	8	n/a
Mission Viejo	92691	$450,000	+15.0%	56	+16.7%
Mission Viejo	92692	$574,000	+12.0%	69	+21.1%
Newport Beach	92660	$1,120,000	+73.0%	42	+20.0%
Newport Beach	92661	$1,620,000	+17.8%	9	+125.0%
Newport Beach	92662	$1,800,000	n/a	3	n/a
Newport Beach	92663	$882,500	+47.1%	28	+86.7%
Newport Coast	92657	$1,849,000	+19.2%	26	+52.9%
Orange	92865	$475,000	+23.4%	31	+55.0%
Orange	92866	$442,000	-5.2%	9	+12.5%
Orange	92867	$515,000	+14.4%	42	+5.0%
Orange	92868	$375,000	+11.9%	15	+15.4%
Orange	92869	$400,000	-8.0%	36	-28.0%
Placentia	92870	$505,000	+19.1%	50	+2.0%
Ran.S. Margarita	92688	$348,750	-5.7%	90	+21.6%
San Clemente	92672	$572,500	+8.0%	41	+13.9%
San Clemente	92673	$622,500	-2.4%	57	+67.6%
San Juan Capo	92675	$419,000	+24.5%	55	+77.4%
Santa Ana	92701	$190,000	+58.3%	29	-40.8%
Santa Ana	92703	$316,500	+43.9%	32	-46.7%
Santa Ana	92704	$297,500	+16.7%	78	+41.8%
Santa Ana	92705	$625,000	+101.6%	48	-7.7%
Santa Ana	92706	$397,500	+21.2%	22	-21.4%
Santa Ana	92707	$255,000	+13.3%	52	-27.8%
Seal Beach	90740	$719,500	-0.4%	22	+29.4%
Stanton	90680	$297,000	+9.6%	15	-55.9%
Trabuco/Coto	92679	$552,500	-16.9%	43	-27.1%
Tustin	92780	$410,000	+59.2%	50	+16.3%
Tustin	92782	$471,500	-32.7%	36	-43.8%
Villa Park	92861	$908,750	-30.1%	10	+100.0%
Westminster	92683	$432,500	+8.8%	78	+2.6%
Yorba Linda	92886	$630,000	+12.1%	70	+32.1%
Yorba Linda	92887	$585,000	-10.0%	31	+40.9%
Total O.C.		$450,000	+7.1%	3,349	+11.5%

What are your thoughts?

Beach town home sales up 40%

June 13th, 2010, 12:33 am · posted by Jon Lansner

For the 22 business days ending May 25 – DataQuick’s latest stats — the 17 ZIPs located in beach towns communities showed …

• 587 homes sold, that is +40.1% vs. a year ago.
• The median selling price of these ZIPs was $719,000 – that is +7.1% vs. a year ago.
• The beach towns ZIPs comprised 18.5% of the recent home sales in Orange County vs. 15.2% a year ago.

A little geographical context …

• 36 ZIP codes in beach towns and inland South County communities had 1,523 homes sales. That’s up 38.6% vs. a year ago.
• 47 ZIP codes in mid-county and inland North County communities had 1,657 homes sales. That’s down 0.4% vs. a year ago.
• Thus, the share of Orange County homes sold in mid-county and inland North County neighborhoods was 52% vs. 60% a year ago.

The ZIP-by-ZIP results for beach towns communities …

Town	ZIP	Price	Yr. chg.	Sales	Yr. chg.
Corona del Mar	92625	$1,668,250	+19.2%	27	+350.0%
Dana Point	92624	$550,000	-4.3%	11	+10.0%
Dana Point	92629	$561,000	-11.7%	44	+12.8%
Huntington Beach	92646	$530,000	+7.1%	75	+53.1%
Huntington Beach	92647	$510,000	+10.4%	38	+11.8%
Huntington Beach	92648	$850,000	+25.9%	44	-4.3%
Huntington Beach	92649	$552,500	-10.6%	37	+68.2%
Laguna Beach	92651	$965,000	-3.5%	42	+90.9%
Newport Beach	92660	$1,000,000	+15.5%	47	+51.6%
Newport Beach	92661	$1,610,000	+16.2%	10	+42.9%
Newport Beach	92662	$1,800,000	+0.0%	7	+133.3%
Newport Beach	92663	$775,000	+34.8%	23	+76.9%
Newport Coast	92657	$1,900,000	+38.0%	28	+154.5%
San Clemente	92672	$565,000	+4.6%	42	+31.3%
San Clemente	92673	$630,000	-0.8%	49	+16.7%
San Juan Capistrano	92675	$450,000	+57.9%	50	+35.1%
Seal Beach	90740	$719,000	+0.6%	13	-13.3%
Total O.C.		$445,000	+9.9%	3,273	+14.6%

What are your thoughts?

O.C. home median price at 21-month high

June 4th, 2010, 9:09 am · posted by Jon Lansner

For the 22 business days ending May 18 – DataQuick’s latest real estate buying report — Orange County saw …

For the 22 business days ending May 18

Slice	Price	Yr. ago	Sales	Yr. ago
Houses	$515,000	+15.7%	1,935	+7.0%
Condos	$295,000	+13.5%	926	+18.9%
New	$640,000	+34.9%	195	+61.2%
All O.C.	$440,000	+12.8%	3,056	+12.8%

• $440,000 median selling price that is up 12.8% vs. a year ago yet -32% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
• A median of $440,000 was last seen in Orange County in August 2008.
• The most recent median is 19% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was 43% below the peak.
• The median selling price of an Orange County single-family home is 30% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 37% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 26% below their February ‘05 top.
• Single-family homes were 75% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 71% a year ago. From 1990-2008, the average house/condo gap was 58%.
• In this most recent period, Orange County shoppers bought 3,056 residences — that is +12.8% vs. year-ago buying activity. This current sales pace is 85% of the average 3,597 homes sold per month in the 20 years ended in 2009.
• Builders’ new-home sales were 6% of all Orange County residences sold in the period vs. 4% a year ago. From 1990-2009, builders did 14% of the selling.

via O.C. home median price at 21-month high – Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register.

What are your thoughts?

Newport Beach homes own the most zip

June 3rd, 2010, 12:01 am · posted by Jon Lansner

Newport Beach 92660 had Orange County’s zippiest housing market in the most recently concluded quarter.

So says our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats.

This ZIP — running from Back Bay to around Fashion Island up to the toll road –ranked 7 of 83 for pricing; 2 for sales; and 6 in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked 19 of 83 overall.

Second strongest was Newport Beach 92663 – from the pier to around the bay up to Hoag Hospital — followed by Irvine 92614 as third best. The beach theme in the Top10 also included Laguna Beach 92651 (#5); Newport Coast 92657 (#6); and Newport Beach 92661 — basically, most of the Balboa Peninsula (#8).

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippys rankings, you see these trends for the best-performing communities:

* The top 25 had a median selling price of $635,000 – that’s +35% vs. the middle of the pack.

* Price momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was 17% compared to 8% for the middle of the pack.

* Sales momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was 54% compared to 5% for the middle of the pack.

* Forecloures occurred in the top 25 ZIP at a rate of 1.4 homes per 1,000 vs. 2.6 for the middle of the pack.

* Forecloures momentum in the top 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was 11% compared to -2% for the middle of the pack.

Rank	Prev.	Town	ZIP	Price	Pricing rank	Sales rank	FC rank
1	19	Newport Beach	92660	$1,126,500	7	2	6
2	42	Newport Beach	92663	$962,500	4	7	15
3	17	Irvine	92614	$495,000	19	4	5
4	51	Irvine	92618	$540,000	12	1	22
5	28	Laguna Beach	92651	$1,250,000	11	10	17
6	33	Newport Coast	92657	$1,686,250	14	13	13
7	45	Fullerton	92835	$570,000	32	9	18
8	3	Newport Beach	92661	$3,300,000	1	63	1
9	33	Irvine	92603	$830,000	16	24	28
10	8	Orange	92866	$483,000	30	37	4

* At right is last quarter’s 10 zippiest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure frequency.

* Two Santa Ana ZIPs finish last in Zippy rankings.

* See this coming Sunday’s Register for more analysis.

PS: What’s a Zippy?

* WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).

* WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”

* HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

via Newport Beach homes own the most zip – Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register.

What are your thoughts?

By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — John Paulson, the hedge-fund manager famous for betting against mortgage securities, is now bullish on the U.S. housing market and the economy.

During a conference call with investors Wednesday, Paulson said he was concerned earlier this year about a potential double-dip recession.

“I’m not concerned about that at all today,” he said. It’s more likely there could be a V-shaped recovery, Paulson elaborated.

House prices have stabilized and could climb 8% to 10% nationwide in 2011, he added.

Corporate earnings are coming in ahead of expectations, the stock market is stronger and there’s a “vibrant” credit market. With the “final leg” of a rising housing market, “the outlook for 2011 could be very strong,” Paulson said.

Paulson oversaw $32 billion in assets at the start of 2010, making it the third-largest hedge-fund firm in the world behind J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.  and Bridgewater Associates.

The firm grew quickly after it made billions of dollars betting against mortgage-related securities before the housing market collapsed in 2007. One of those bets was against parts of a Goldman Sachs collateralized debt obligation called Abacus 2007-AC1.

Covering shorts

Returns generated by Paulson’s main Advantage hedge funds lagged some rivals in the first quarter. Paulson said Wednesday that this was because the firm kept its net exposure to the market low. This means negative bets, known as short positions, were relatively high compared to positive, or long, positions.

Paulson added he was concerned about a potential double-dip recession and a possible default by a Southern European nation. “I’m currently much less concerned that either those two issues will happen.”

Greece’s problems are much better understood now and are being dealt with, he commented.

Paulson & Co. covered, or closed, many of its short positions recently and that showed up in stronger returns in April, the fund manager noted. The firm has been “much more aggressive” in positioning its Advantage funds to “participate in a stronger economic recovery,” Paulson said.

via Paulson & Co. turns bullish on housing, economy Hedge Funds – MarketWatch.

What are your thoughts?

Homebuying up 52% at beach, south O.C.
April 18th, 2010, 7:58 am
posted by Jon Lansner

For calendar month March – freshest numbers from DataQuick — our region-by-region analysis of homebuying shows Orange County slices up geographically speaking this way …

• DataQuick identified 704 homes selling in Orange County’s north-inland ZIP codes in this most recent period, +6% from a year ago.
• Median selling price? $448,000 in these 23 ZIPs. This most recent median price change was +11.0% vs. a year ago.
• Mid-county ZIPs — median selling price $347,000 – had 762 sales, -10% from a year ago. In these 24 ZIPs, the freshets median price change was +7.2% vs. a year ago. Combined, total homes sales in ZIPs in the north and mid-section of Orange County were -2.7% vs. a year ago as homebuying the the rest of the county ran +51.6% vs. 12 months earlier.
• North/mid-county homes accounted for 54% of residences sold in the most recent period vs. 65% a year ago. 460 homes sold in beach cities’ 17 ZIP codes in the most recent period, +47% from a year ago. Median selling price? $701,500 in these 17 ZIPs. Newest median price change was +14.5% vs. a year ago.
• South inland ZIPs — median selling price $521,875 – had 785 sales, +54% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, the latest median price change was +6.7% vs. a year ago.
• All told, countywide sales were +9% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was +12% in the past year.

via Homebuying up 52% at beach, south O.C. – Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register.

What are your thoughts? –