At a recent gathering of real estate professionals, Chris Thonberg of Beacon Economics expressed his thoughts about the current state of the Orange County real estate market. He went into some detail about the economic factors which are improving to cause the stabilization and upturn of the real estate market.

Below is a brief excerpt from his presentation.

You may read the Jeff Collins take on that conference by visiting the link at the bottom of this post.

But Thursday, Thornberg said, “I’m probably the most optimistic that I’ve been about the economy in the last eight years.”

Thornberg cited a host of indicators pointing to improvement. Durable goods orders, industrial production, imports, exports, rail car loadings and hotel occupancy rates all are up. Home and consumer delinquency rates are down.

Commercial real estate vacancies have peaked and are starting to come down, he said.

Personal income in California is up 6.5 percent. Business inventories declined just as consumer demand took off, which will spur production. Hiring, a lagging indicator, is starting to heat up, and “that’s going to continue,” he said.

The threat from the Euro debt crisis is overblown, he maintained. At worst, it will cause a mild recession in Europe, which won’t be enough to bring down the world economy.

From Ex-Doomsayer: ‘It’s a great time to buy a home’ – Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register.

Please let me know your thoughts.

Below is an excerpt from an OC Register article which states that the most recent U.C.L.A. Anderson Forecast predicts a 49% increase in home prices over the next six years.

UCLA: O.C. home prices to surge 49%

October 27th, 2010, 1:00 am · posted by Jeff Collins

Orange County will have a half-million-dollar housing market again by 2012, and home sales volume will rebound by a whopping 43% over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for the O.C. housing market.

Orange County Forecast

Year	Price	chg.	Sales	chg.
2010	$428,381	5.6%	32,139	3.5%
2011	$460,545	7.5%	40,974	27.5%
2012	$503,450	9.3%	45,877	12.0%
2013	$538,750	7.0%	48,832	6.4%
2014	$577,619	7.2%	49,913	2.2%
2015	$615,644	6.6%	47,800	-4.2%
2016	$639,650	3.9%	47,577	-0.5%

Economists with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast foresee O.C. home prices climbing above $500,000 in 2012 for the first time since April 2008. Prices are expected to appreciate from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015 — and, all told, grow 49% in the next six years.

By 2016, prices may be back to, or just under, the all-time highs reached at the pinnacle of the housing boom.

As for home sales, UCLA foresees transactions jumping 27.5 in 2011 and continuing to climb through 2014, almost reaching the boom-time levels.

“Expect a sluggish housing market for the remainder of this year and into next spring,” the forecast states. “At that time, pent up demand, rising affordability, and dissipating fear of a faltering economy should push sales higher.”

While UCLA forecasters don’t expect another recession, they believe that the recovery will be slow, calling the housing market recovery “fragile.”

In addition, there’s a wild card that could change the housing outlook for the worse, UCLA economists warned. If the shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages should abruptly get pushed through the foreclosure process, “this would impact selling values,” the forecast states. [read more ...]

Individuals who have been waiting for the bottom of the housing market to purchase a home might consider now the perfect time to take advantage of the current low prices, low interest rates and abundant inventory.

What are your thoughts?

Here is a quote from the September 1, 2010  New York Times article by Karl E. Case titled “A Dream House After All”.  Karl E. Case is a professor emeritus of economics at Wellesley and co-creator of Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller housing index.

This financial crisis has made us all too aware that we live in a Catch-22 world: the performance of the housing market drives the economy, and the performance of the economy drives the housing market. But housing has perhaps never been a better bargain, and sooner or later buyers will regain faith, inventories will shrink to reasonable levels, prices will rise and we’ll even start building again. The American dream is not dead — it’s just taking a well-deserved rest.

via Op-Ed Contributor – A Dream House After All – NYTimes.com.

What are your thoughts?

The following OC Register article, based on information from DataQuick, outlines the recent housing price increases in the Newport Beach area.  Now might be a good time for those wishing to own a home in the Newport Beach area to start looking at the available inventory.

Newport among state’s top home gains

July 30th, 2010, 12:01 am ·  posted by Jon Lansner

Newport Beach cracked the Top 10 list of California cities with the largest year-over-year home prices gains, based on changes in the median selling price as tracked by the California Association of Realtors. June’s list …

1. National City, up 59 percent
2. Newport Beach, 52 percent
3. Richmond, 52 percent
4. San Bernardino, 47 percent
5. San Pablo, 38 percent
6. Fairfield, 37 percent
7. Walnut, 34 percent
8. Colton, 32 percent
9. Imperial Beach, 31 percent
10. Poway, 30 percent

CAR notes: “Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity.”

Statewide, CAR said the median selling price of an existing home rose 13.6 percent vs. June 2009. In Orange County, CAR had prices rising at a 6 percent annual rate.

Less of a surprise was that Newport was among the state’s priciest addresses. The Top 10 by median selling price in the state in June …

1. Manhattan Beach, $1,737,500
2. Los Altos, $1,618,500
3. Saratoga, $1,425,000
4. Palo Alto, $1,308,500
5. Laguna Beach, $1,230,500
6. Newport Beach, $1,150,000
7. Los Gatos, $1,045,000
8. Rancho Palos Verdes, $1,000,000
9. Cupertino, $980,000
10. Lafayette, $946,250

One last bit of June trend trivia from CAR, an analysis by DataQuick that found, “232 of the 372 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”

What are your thoughts?

The OC Register article shown below indicates the Orange County Coastal areas continue to experience an improving housing market. Both prices and the number of sales have increased over last month and over last June.

Home sales up in 59 O.C. ZIPs

June 25th, 2010, 9:01 am . posted by Jeff Collins

For the 22 business days ending June 7 – DataQuick’s freshest stats — Orange County home buying patterns showed:

• Fifty-four of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes had gains in their respective median selling price. (Highlighted in green below!) Overall, prices were up 7.1% vs. a year ago.
• Five of O.C.’s ZIPs had median sales prices above $1 million in the period vs. 11 million-dollar ZIPs when the county median price peaked in June 2007. Since that pricing pinnacle, there’s been a 30% drop in the countywide median price!
• Fifty-nine of O.C.’s ZIPs had year-over-year sales gains in the period. Overall, sales were up 11.5% vs. a year ago.
• Thirty-seven ZIP codes had gains in both sales and prices.
• Three of O.C.’s ZIPs has sales gains of 100% or more in the period.

Here’s a look at the 83 ZIPs and how they fared in terms of median selling price and total sales for this period:

Town	ZIP	Price	Yr. chg.	Sales	Yr. chg.
Aliso Viejo	92656	$419,000	-0.2%	121	+49.4%
Anaheim	92801	$345,000	+23.2%	40	-4.8%
Anaheim	92802	$329,500	+7.2%	28	+21.7%
Anaheim	92804	$340,000	+11.5%	63	-4.5%
Anaheim	92805	$316,000	+3.6%	51	-36.3%
Anaheim	92806	$385,000	+4.9%	18	+38.5%
Anaheim	92807	$467,500	-2.1%	35	+0.0%
Anaheim	92808	$430,000	-1.1%	35	+40.0%
Brea	92821	$387,500	-11.1%	21	+0.0%
Brea	92823	$755,000	+31.6%	1	-80.0%
Buena Park	90620	$400,000	+2.6%	57	+3.6%
Buena Park	90621	$361,500	+25.5%	22	+37.5%
Corona del Mar	92625	$1,737,500	+54.4%	22	+57.1%
Costa Mesa	92626	$519,500	+3.9%	32	-5.9%
Costa Mesa	92627	$430,000	-14.4%	48	+20.0%
Cypress	90630	$449,000	-4.0%	45	+36.4%
Dana Point	92624	$552,500	+0.5%	16	+45.5%
Dana Point	92629	$563,000	-24.4%	49	+25.6%
Foothill Ranch	92610	$245,000	-45.6%	17	-5.6%
Fountain Valley	92708	$608,500	+14.8%	47	+38.2%
Fullerton	92831	$436,000	+7.7%	21	-34.4%
Fullerton	92832	$303,000	+1.0%	14	+7.7%
Fullerton	92833	$370,000	+2.8%	78	+50.0%
Fullerton	92835	$440,000	-19.3%	24	+20.0%
Garden Grove	92840	$340,000	+7.9%	53	+1.9%
Garden Grove	92841	$355,000	-6.6%	29	-19.4%
Garden Grove	92843	$320,000	+6.7%	34	-12.8%
Garden Grove	92844	$315,000	+22.3%	30	+42.9%
Garden Grove	92845	$480,000	-0.8%	12	+71.4%
Huntington Beach	92646	$539,500	+7.9%	62	+3.3%
Huntington Beach	92647	$529,250	+10.3%	36	-10.0%
Huntington Beach	92648	$775,000	-2.5%	52	+4.0%
Huntington Beach	92649	$510,000	-2.5%	32	+10.3%
Irvine	92602	$610,000	+6.9%	35	+16.7%
Irvine	92603	$977,500	+28.6%	36	+12.5%
Irvine	92604	$545,000	+10.2%	24	+4.3%
Irvine	92606	$412,000	-26.1%	23	+15.0%
Irvine	92612	$475,000	-8.7%	43	+79.2%
Irvine	92614	$557,500	+2.9%	23	-14.8%
Irvine	92618	$630,000	+44.5%	76	+261.9%
Irvine	92620	$740,000	+8.8%	54	0.0%
Ladera Ranch	92694	$557,000	+8.3%	64	+25.5%
La Habra	90631	$360,000	+26.3%	66	+53.5%
La Palma	90623	$541,000	+3.0%	16	+60.0%
Laguna Beach	92651	$900,000	-22.3%	40	+11.1%
Laguna Hills	92653	$455,500	+23.5%	31	-18.4%
Laguna Niguel	92677	$483,750	-7.9%	105	+22.1%
Laguna Woods	92637	$170,000	-27.7%	27	+42.1%
Lake Forest	92630	$439,000	+20.3%	74	+39.6%
Los Alamitos	90720	$664,500	+2.5%	18	+20.0%
Midway City	92655	$351,500	n/a	8	n/a
Mission Viejo	92691	$450,000	+15.0%	56	+16.7%
Mission Viejo	92692	$574,000	+12.0%	69	+21.1%
Newport Beach	92660	$1,120,000	+73.0%	42	+20.0%
Newport Beach	92661	$1,620,000	+17.8%	9	+125.0%
Newport Beach	92662	$1,800,000	n/a	3	n/a
Newport Beach	92663	$882,500	+47.1%	28	+86.7%
Newport Coast	92657	$1,849,000	+19.2%	26	+52.9%
Orange	92865	$475,000	+23.4%	31	+55.0%
Orange	92866	$442,000	-5.2%	9	+12.5%
Orange	92867	$515,000	+14.4%	42	+5.0%
Orange	92868	$375,000	+11.9%	15	+15.4%
Orange	92869	$400,000	-8.0%	36	-28.0%
Placentia	92870	$505,000	+19.1%	50	+2.0%
Ran.S. Margarita	92688	$348,750	-5.7%	90	+21.6%
San Clemente	92672	$572,500	+8.0%	41	+13.9%
San Clemente	92673	$622,500	-2.4%	57	+67.6%
San Juan Capo	92675	$419,000	+24.5%	55	+77.4%
Santa Ana	92701	$190,000	+58.3%	29	-40.8%
Santa Ana	92703	$316,500	+43.9%	32	-46.7%
Santa Ana	92704	$297,500	+16.7%	78	+41.8%
Santa Ana	92705	$625,000	+101.6%	48	-7.7%
Santa Ana	92706	$397,500	+21.2%	22	-21.4%
Santa Ana	92707	$255,000	+13.3%	52	-27.8%
Seal Beach	90740	$719,500	-0.4%	22	+29.4%
Stanton	90680	$297,000	+9.6%	15	-55.9%
Trabuco/Coto	92679	$552,500	-16.9%	43	-27.1%
Tustin	92780	$410,000	+59.2%	50	+16.3%
Tustin	92782	$471,500	-32.7%	36	-43.8%
Villa Park	92861	$908,750	-30.1%	10	+100.0%
Westminster	92683	$432,500	+8.8%	78	+2.6%
Yorba Linda	92886	$630,000	+12.1%	70	+32.1%
Yorba Linda	92887	$585,000	-10.0%	31	+40.9%
Total O.C.		$450,000	+7.1%	3,349	+11.5%

What are your thoughts?

Below is an OC Register article which points out a continuing upward trend of the Orange County Coastal area housing market.

Beach town home sales up 40%

June 13th, 2010, 12:33 am · posted by Jon Lansner

For the 22 business days ending May 25 – DataQuick’s latest stats — the 17 ZIPs located in beach towns communities showed …

• 587 homes sold, that is +40.1% vs. a year ago.
• The median selling price of these ZIPs was $719,000 – that is +7.1% vs. a year ago.
• The beach towns ZIPs comprised 18.5% of the recent home sales in Orange County vs. 15.2% a year ago.

A little geographical context …

• 36 ZIP codes in beach towns and inland South County communities had 1,523 homes sales. That’s up 38.6% vs. a year ago.
• 47 ZIP codes in mid-county and inland North County communities had 1,657 homes sales. That’s down 0.4% vs. a year ago.
• Thus, the share of Orange County homes sold in mid-county and inland North County neighborhoods was 52% vs. 60% a year ago.

The ZIP-by-ZIP results for beach towns communities …

Town	ZIP	Price	Yr. chg.	Sales	Yr. chg.
Corona del Mar	92625	$1,668,250	+19.2%	27	+350.0%
Dana Point	92624	$550,000	-4.3%	11	+10.0%
Dana Point	92629	$561,000	-11.7%	44	+12.8%
Huntington Beach	92646	$530,000	+7.1%	75	+53.1%
Huntington Beach	92647	$510,000	+10.4%	38	+11.8%
Huntington Beach	92648	$850,000	+25.9%	44	-4.3%
Huntington Beach	92649	$552,500	-10.6%	37	+68.2%
Laguna Beach	92651	$965,000	-3.5%	42	+90.9%
Newport Beach	92660	$1,000,000	+15.5%	47	+51.6%
Newport Beach	92661	$1,610,000	+16.2%	10	+42.9%
Newport Beach	92662	$1,800,000	+0.0%	7	+133.3%
Newport Beach	92663	$775,000	+34.8%	23	+76.9%
Newport Coast	92657	$1,900,000	+38.0%	28	+154.5%
San Clemente	92672	$565,000	+4.6%	42	+31.3%
San Clemente	92673	$630,000	-0.8%	49	+16.7%
San Juan Capistrano	92675	$450,000	+57.9%	50	+35.1%
Seal Beach	90740	$719,000	+0.6%	13	-13.3%
Total O.C.		$445,000	+9.9%	3,273	+14.6%

What are your thoughts?